I have been working with internet based computing since the inception of the web in 1994. Now in the early days, there were several business models that were tried, but after the shakeout, only 5 real models emerged for making money on the web (at this time). Consider this as the 10,000 foot view. The models can be identified as not for profit information services, web related infrastructure services (hosting, consulting, programming), extensions of brick and mortar stores (online catalogs), subscription based services (um, mostly pornographic), and lastly advertising (the big monster, the Walmart of the web, Google ladies and gentlemen). Now I have tried to make money as a side line from each of the models (obviously not so for the not for profit). Tossing out the infrastructure model at least for this conversation, all three boil down to need the same thing (and the infrastructure model too, if you burrow down to the root cause). You need to have traffic to the site and that traffic to do something.
I have found, traffic is needed for click and mortar, subscription, and advertising models. The more traffic you send to your site, the more likely they are going to buy, subscribe, or see your advertisements. If you look at the venues I have followed in my attempts to make money, I started with building infrastructure for clients... well you needed customers for that. I then tried out an online store... well you need traffic to get the customers. In the 3 years we were open, we had 3 customers. I have not tried a subscription based service, but in my next venue I will have that as part of its biz model. Lately, I have been focusing on the advertising aspects (with this blog, several cash parked sites, and I am working on a content distribution service within the web and 3d worlds... the 3d worlds is for another post tho). I would say out of all of them, the most traction seems to come from the building of infrastructure, and the advertisement model. Funny, if I look at them in order of which I did them, they all built upon each other.
It used to be if you build it, they will come. Then it got to be if you build it, they will come, but you need to make them do something. Now it is, if you build it, they will come, but you have to make them WANT to do something. As an example. I used to build websites for people that were static and dynamic. Just submitting to the search engine was enough. Then I started building online stores for others and myself. People would come in, but you had to compel them to buy. Now, I have to drive traffic to my site with various ways (search engines, engine placement, dead url redirects, bought traffic, google ads, etc). Once here, I have to put out compelling content to get them to click on my ads or make sure my content pulls up ads that are higher paying. What is next? Bribes? There will be a new business model that will eventually shake out I suspect. Perhaps a slant on the old ASP model.
So what will the new business model for the web be? Either way, in the end you will need customers/traffic. Maybe something with SOA perhaps? Collections of services that are sold via micro payments each time they are used? That would work, but your services would have to be better than what is available freely, and the payments have to at that sweet spot of price to make them worth while to the developer and customer. I would love to be the one that sets up the "framework" for collecting the monies from SOA pay services (of course taking a small % for my troubles)... Hmm, there it is world. My newest entrepreneurial adventure! See you in 5 years on my boat in the Caribbean.... Ha!